Root for me, root against me, I really don’t care.  Just root.  I was in Vegas back in June, June 27 to be exact, and I placed 3 bets on the NFL Regular Season Win Totals.  Here are my 3 bets, what I was thinking then, and what I am thinking now.

I practiced what I preach and I had a set amount of money that was for all bets on the Season O/U.  After doing what felt like the appropriate amount of research, wound up with 3 teams.  It is important to note that my mindset was not to find 3 teams, but to simply see if there was anything worth wagering on.  And the selections were:

New York Jets OVR 7 (-160)
Dallas Cowboys UND 11 (-115)
New England Patriots UND 12.5 (+105)

I believed the Jets could win 11 games this year.  Their schedule is weak, they weren’t that bad last year and they made a lot of positive moves in the offseason.  A difference of 4 is to big to ignore and I gave the Jets 50% of my Bank.  The acquisition of Favre doesn’t make me doubt my choice.  I still like the Jets Over 7.

I don’t remember how many games I thought the Cowboys would win, but I knew that winning 12 doesn’t seem right.  Their division is said to be the best and each division foe will be better this year.  I think there are too many negative elements in that organization to see them win 12 games, so the Under intrigued me.  When I saw the it was -115 that gave me the confidence to go with the lay a little something on it, so I gave it 25% of my Bank.  I feel this is still a good bet, and information I read in the 2008 NFL Football Prospectus boosted my confidence.

The New England Patriots would need to win 13 games to cover the Over.  Seems like a no-brainer, right?  How WON’T they win AT LEAST 13 games?!?!  Right, isn’t that what it would seem?  If you believe the Jets are going to be good, and I do; and you think the Patriots defense which was not very good last year is going to be even worse, and I do; and if you believe that the AFC East can be won with 10 or 11 wins so the Pats can have a mediocre year and still win the Division, and I do.  Then the Under 12.5 may seem like a good bet to you too.  I got the it at +105, and I gave this bet 25% of my Bank.  Things seem to be going as I thought they would.

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View All of Dean Browski’s 2008 NFL Team Projections