When to buy?  A question that can perplex the best investors in the world, but one that you must ask yourself if you are to ever turn your gambling into something more than an emotional money grab.  If you wait until Sunday morning like a lot of people do, then you are missing out on two very vital aspects of being a professional.  First, you may have lost out on the opportunity to get a team you like at a more favorable point spread.  Secondly, if you are looking at the lines for the first time on Sunday then you have no point of reference on how the line fluctuated during the week.  This is information that tells a tale, a tale that you should be attentive to. 

I will share a bit of my methodology, but I strongly suggest that you devise your own methodology to view, and track the various movements.  There is no perfect system, but there are imperfect ones.  The most imperfect is to not have one at all.  In my system, I go through every game before knowing the actual line and I set my own.  I then add the actual line next to each game, along with two other bits of information that sheds some light on what the rest of the betting public is thinking.  ESPN has a line listed next to each game which is the average point spread as set by the users of the site.  Covers.com also has something they call Consensus which is a percentage of people, using Wagerline.com, who have selected a team with the point spread at various times in the line’s history.  Please, please, please remember that the Vegas line is a product of what the public thinks and believes.

What do the numbers tell me?  If the Cowboys are playing the Browns in Cleveland, and I set my line at Dallas -4, then I see that the actual line is Dallas -4.5 I ask myself, ok, is there any value in going either way?  Initially I would say no, and then see how the line moves during the week.  When I plug in the number from ESPN, I see that the public, or at least some representation of the public, is setting the Cowboys line at -8.  Why the difference?  Well, that is up for many interpretations but my belief is that the Cowboy fan base is huge and they love to say how good their ‘Boys are.  Secondly, expectations are high in Dallas this year so even non-Cowboy fans are going to be hyping Dallas.  Now, based on this I would not take any action just yet, but if you honestly feel that the line of 4 to 4.5 is the most accurate, then if it creeps upward the Browns as a pick will have gained in value.

One more example, Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers.  I set the line at the Chargers -6, the ESPN crowd also set it at -6.  The actual line is Chargers -9.5.  This could be a sign of the Chargers being over-valued and that the line may come down closer to 6.  If you thought that a fair line was Carolina getting 6 points, and then you were told that you could get Carolina and 9.5 points, this would be a steal for you.

This methodology is not how I pick my games, but it is an instrument that can bring information to light.  At the very least I will want to look for reasons that my line may be way off from the public’s line and/or Vegas’ line.  For me, there are still a few pieces to the puzzle that I would want to plug in before making a final decision.  For example, in the Dallas-Cleveland example from above, if the line does start to move closer to 8 is it justified?  This is where your own analysis of the situation comes into play.  Has Cleveland’s defense gotten any better?  Will Dallas’ highly potent offense be back this year, and if so will they be clicking on all cylinders in Week 1?  That is up for you to decide, I have my views and you should have yours.

Here are the teams I am taking early in the week:

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Tennessee Titans.  This line could go higher, maybe as much as 4 or 5.  If you like the Jags, and I do, then jumping them early could hold value.
Houston Texans +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers.  I am not fond of the Steelers this year, and the Texans aren’t bad.  I set this line at HOU +4, another 2.5 points is nice so I will be on the Texans today.
Carolina Panthers +9.5 at San Diego Chargers.  Carolina is a team I like coming into the year, and while the Chargers are good I think 9.5 is a lot to ask of them.  I set the line at San Diego -6, so I am going to take the Panthers early in the week.

These games will have a close eye kept to line movements:
Cleveland Browns +4.5 vs Dallas Cowboys.  Could go up.  You like Cleveland?  You like Dallas?  Either way, this line is worth watching.
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings.  ESPN line is Minnesota -1.  I believe this is a product of people thinking the Packers are going to struggle without Favre.  I think that is NOT the case.  I doubt the line will get bigger, so I will wait on this one and hope it comes closer to a Pick, then possibly hop on the Packers.

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